基于设备脆弱性的电网气象灾害故障预测

Meteorological Disaster Fault Prediction for Power Grid Based on Equipment Vulnerability

电网运维数据表明,电网设备故障主要由雷电、雨雪、大风、冰冻等自然气象因素引起,是电网防灾减灾的重点。基于气象与电网故障之间的关联特点,提出一种基于设备脆弱性的电网设备气象灾害故障预测方法。将设备脆弱性指数作为变量改进关联规则算法,实现设备不同历史状态下的归一化处理。算例分析表明,基于设备脆弱性改进的关联方法,能够准确、全面地建立气象信息与电网故障之间的映射关系,预测给定气象条件下的故障概率。

The data of grid operation and maintenance shows that the faults of power grid equipment are mainly caused by natural meteorological factors such as lightning,rain,snow,wind and ice.It is the focus of power grid disaster prevention and mitigation.Aiming at the correlation characteristics between meteorological and grid faults,a method for predicting fault of power grid equipment based on equipment vulnerability is proposed.Equipment vulnerability index is used as a variable to improve the association rule algorithm to achieve normalization in different historical states of equipment.The analysis of the example shows that the association method improved by equipment vulnerability can accurately and comprehensively establish the mapping relations between meteorological information and grid faults,and predicting the probability of failure under given meteorological conditions.