短视频发展因素的分析及前景预测

Analysis and Prospect Forecast of Short Video Development

移动时代下,短视频以其简单性、创意性的特点迅速成为新的媒体形式。自2017年以来,短视频的热度持续发酵,新兴技术5G的加速落地推动短视频行业进入了下一个快速发展阶段。基于可靠的数据信息和缜密的统计分析方法,利用Lar、Lasso、Stepwise等方法进行变量选择,建立Logistic模型、Probit模型等数学模型,并应用具体直观、有说服力的数学模型进行分析与预测,最终基于模型分析及预测结果,给出了短视频开发者在未来发展中应注意的事项以及相关的发展建议。

In the mobile era,short video quickly becomes a new form of media because of its simplicity and creativity.Since 2017,the popularity of short video has continued to ferment,and the acceleration of the emerging technology 5G has pushed the short video industry into the next stage of rapid development.Based on reliable data information and meticulous statistical analysis methods,and by using Lar,Lasso,and Stepwise for variables selection,mathematical models such as Logistic model and Probit model are established.At the same time,specific,intuitive,and persuasive mathematical models are used to implement analysis and prediction.Finally,based on model analysis and prediction results,the issues that the short video developers should pay attention to in the future development and related development suggestions are given.