转移支付与地方政府公共支出偏向——基于面板门槛效应的分析

Transfer Payment and Public Expenditure Behavior ——Based on the Analyses of Panel Threshold Effect

本文利用1994~2007年县级数据,以财政自给率作为门槛变量,基于双重面板门槛模型,分析了我国转移支付与地方公共支出的非线性关系。研究结果表明:转移支付对地方公共支出的影响存在显著的门槛效应;转移支付对基本建设支出和行政管理支出的促进作用都更为显著,在某种程度上强化了地方政府行为选择和公共支出结构的扭曲;我国转移支付对公共支出的影响存在地区差异,转移支付不能有效激励经济欠发达地区提供基本公共服务,因而转移支付制度在一定程度上与基本公共服务均等化目标激励不相容。

Employing the county-level data from 1994 to 2007,viewing the fiscal self-sufficiency rate as the threshold variable and based on the Dual Panel Threshold Model,this thesis analyzes the non-linear relationships between the transfer payments and local public expenditures in our country.The findings demonstrate that there exists significant threshold effect among the effects of transfer payments on the local public expenditures;transfer payments facilitate the capital construction expenditures and the administration expenditures more significantly,and to an extent,strengthen the distortion in the behavior choices as well as in the public expenditure structure on the part of local governments.Regional disparities exist among the effects of transfer payments on public expenditures;transfer payments can not effectively encourage the economic less-developed regions to provide basic public services,and thus in some sense,transfer payment system is incompatible with the goal incentives arising from the equalization of basic public services.