网络舆情热度的影响因素研究——基于2010-2018年10600起舆情事件的实证分析

Research on the Influencing Factors of the Heat of Online Public Opinion:An Empirical Analysis Based on 10,600 Events from 2010-2018

本文基于2010-2018年10600起舆情事件,考察了事件本身属性、媒介传播、网民参与及政府干预对网络舆情热度的影响。多元分层回归模型的结果表明:1.环境和文化体育类事件网络舆情热度较高,反腐倡廉类事件网络舆情热度较低;因为大型活动和科技发现引发的舆情事件传播热度较高。2.由传统媒体、网络新闻首次曝光的舆情事件热度较低。3.出现第三方、网络谣言、网络动员的舆情事件热度较高,意见领袖的出现对网络舆情热度没有显著影响;网民舆论倾向性非常正面的舆情事件传播热度较高。4.网络舆情事件中如果国家部委进行了干预,则舆情热度较高;政府干预的时效性越差,网络舆情热度越高;政府采用新闻发布会、社交媒体回应的舆情事件热度较高,利用对外公告或文件回应的舆情事件热度较低;政府干预级数与网络舆情热度正相关。

Based on 10,600 public opinion events from 2010 to 2018,this paper investigates how event attributes,media communication,netizen participation and government intervention affect the heat of online public opinion.The results of multivariate regressionsshow that:(1)The environmental and cultural/sportseventshave a high degree of online public opinionheat,while the anticorruption events have a low degree of online public opinionheat;events caused by largescale activities and scientific/technological discoveries have a high degree of online public opinionheat.(2)The heat of public opinion events first exposed by traditional media and network news is relatively low.(3)The events which have third party,network rumors and nerwork mobilization have a high degree of online public opinion heat.whileopinion leaders have no significant influence on the heat of online public opinions;the heat of public opinion events with very positive opinions among netizens is relatively high.(4)If national ministries and commissions intervene in the event,the heat of online public opinion ishigh;the worse timeliness of government intervention,the higher heat of online public opinion;The heat of public opinion events responded by the government through news conferences and social media is relatively high,while the heat of public opinion events responded by external announcements or documents is relatively low;the level of government intervention is positively correlated with the heat of online public opinion.