基于大客流的北京地铁网络化运营风险研究

Risks in the Networked Operation of the Beijing Subway Based on High Passenger Flow

客流冲击对北京地铁网络化运营安全的影响日益突出。通过统计分析北京地铁各线路日常运营的客流量数据,总结北京地铁运营网络的客流规律和大客流冲击地铁线网结构产生的运营风险特点。结合风险管理的相关理论,构建地铁网络化运营风险评价指标体系和多层次模糊综合评价模型。实证研究部分以北京地铁客流量较大的1号线为评价对象,计算该条线路上22个车站的风险值,风险值大小能够反映出不同站点对地铁网络化运营风险大小的影响程度。其中国贸站、大望路站风险值达到0.7以上(属于高风险),需要作为运营风险管理的关键站点,以期为今后进行地铁网络化运营关键站点风险管控研究提供参考思路。

The impact of passenger flow on the security of networked operations of the Beijing Subway has become increasingly prominent.Through an analysis of the passenger flow data from the daily operations of the Beijing Subway lines,a law of passenger flow and the characteristics of operational risks generated by large passenger flows are summarized.Combined with the releva nt theories of risk management,this study constructs a networked operation risk evaluation index system and multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.This study takes the No.1 line of the Beijing Subway,with its high passenger flow,as the evaluation object and calculates the risk value of 22 stations on the line.The risk value can reflect the degree of influence of different stations on the networked operation risk of the subway.The risk value of both Guomao Station and Dawang Road Station are above 0.7(high);they will be key sites for operational risk management.This study will provide guidance for future research on the risk management of key sites in the networked operation of subway.