吉林省卫生总费用影响因素分析及规模预测——基于灰色系统理论的研究

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Scale Forecast of Total Health Expenditure in Jilin Province:Based on Grey System Theory

卫生总费用持续上涨是包括中国在内的大部分国家共同关注的社会问题,而吉林省作为我国东北地区的主要省份,在调整经济结构、促进经济发展的同时,也面临着卫生总费用持续上涨带来的社会经济负担。采用新医改后2010-2017年吉林省卫生总费用及相关数据,运用灰色系统理论,在深入探讨卫生总费用影响因素的同时对未来四年的卫生总费用进行预测。结果显示,人均GDP、人口老龄化是卫生总费用不断增长的重要影响因素,而政府卫生事业投入对卫生总费用的影响缺乏弹性;预计到2021年,吉林省卫生总费用占GDP的比重将达到7. 97%,接近卫生总费用可持续性的警戒值(8%),卫生筹资的经济可持续性面临着极大的挑战。

The continuous increase in total health expenditure has been a common concern for most countries,including China.Jilin Province,as a major component part in the northeastern region of China,is still facing the economic burden of rising total health expenditure w hile transforming its economic mode and promoting economic development.This paper adopts the total health expenditure and other related data of Jilin Province from 2010 to 2017 after the new medical reform,and uses the grey system theory to explore the influencing factors of total health expenditure and forecast the total health expenditure in the next four years.The results show that per capita GDP and population aging are important factors influencing the continuous increase of total health expenditure,w hile the impact of government health investment on total health expenditure is not flexible.The forecast results show that in 2021,the rate of total health expenditure in GDP will reach 7.97%,w hich will be close to the threshold of the sustainability of the total health expenditure(8%),and the economic sustainability of health financing is facing great challenges.