气候变化对油松毛虫在全球适生区的影响

Climate change impacts on the global potential distribution of Dendrolimus tabulaeformis

【目的】为明确油松毛虫Dendrolimustabulaeformis在中国的潜在适生区,降低油松毛虫扩散带来的经济和生态损失。【方法】本研究利用CLIMEX软件,并结合油松毛虫和寄主油松的已知地理分布和生物学数据,分别预测油松毛虫和寄主油松在历史气候条件下(1987-2016)和未来气候条件下(2071-2100)在全球的潜在分布区,以评估气候变化分别对油松毛虫和油松适生程度的影响;本研究叠加寄主分布,以评估寄主油松对油松毛虫全球适生性的影响。【结果】研究结果显示,在历史和未来气候条件下,油松毛虫在全球各洲均有适生区分布(除南极洲),低度适生区分布范围较广,高度适生区仅分布于局部地区,如美国和中国。并且在未来气候变化情景下,油松毛虫潜在适生区有北移的趋势,总适生面积增加。寄主植物仅在局部地区限制油松毛虫的分布。【结论】本研究明确了气候变化和寄主植物对油松毛虫气候适生区的影响,可为未来油松毛虫的监测防治提供一定的理论依据。

[Objectives] The study aims to clarify the potential distribution of Dendrolimus tabulaeformis in China to reduce the economic and ecological losses caused by the spread of the pest. [Mehtods] In this study, we used CLIMEX software,combined with the known geographical distribution and biological data of Dendrolimus tabulaeformi and Pinus tabulaeformis,to predict the global potential distribution of the pest and its host plant under historical climatic condition(1987-2016) and future climatic condition(2071-2100). Besides, we analyzed the impact of climate change on the climatic suitability of the pest and its host plant. We also identified the impacts of host plant on the climatic suitability of the pest. [Results] The results show that the pest had a suitable distribution area in all continents(except Antarctica) under historical and future climatic conditions. The marginal region was widely distributed, while the very favorable region was only distributed in some areas,such as the United States and China. Furthermore, the potential habitat of the pest tended to move northward, and the total suitable area increased in the future. The host plant only had slight impacts on the potential distribution of the pest.[Conclution] We clarified the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of D. tabulaeformi and provided a theoretical basis for the future monitoring and control of the pest.