2019—2020年中国宏观经济报告——结构调整攻坚期的中国宏观经济

CHINA’S MACROECONOMIC REPORT 2019—2020——China’s Macro-economy in the Period of Structural Adjustment

2019年在中美贸易冲突全面加剧、世界经济同步回落、国内结构性因素持续发酵、周期性下行力量有所加大等多重因素的作用下,中国宏观经济告别了2016—2018年"稳中趋缓"的平台期,经济增速回落幅度加大,经济结构分化明显。2020年是中国全面建成小康年,中国宏观经济将在延续2019年基本运行模式的基础上出现重大变化,不必过于悲观。一方面,2019年下行的趋势性力量和结构性力量将持续发力,导致2020年潜在GDP增速进一步回落;另一方面,2019年下行的很多周期性力量在2020年开始出现拐点性变化,宏观经济下行将有所缓和,下行幅度将较2019年明显收窄。部分周期性力量的反转以及中国制度红利的持续改善将是2020年最为值得关注和期待的新变化。

In 2019,under the influence of multiple factors such as the aggravation of Sino-U.S.trade conflict,the simultaneous decline of the world economy,the continuous fermentation of domestic structural factors and the increase of cyclical downward force,China’s macro-economy bid farewell to the platform period of"stable and slowing down"in 2016—2018 with the increased decline of economic growth and the obvious economic structural differentiation.2020 is China’s fairly well-off year in an all-round way.China’s macro-economy will change significantly on the basis of continuing the basic operation mode in 2019,so it is not necessary to be too pessimistic.On the one hand,the downward trend force and structural force in 2019 will continue to work,which will further reduce the potential GDP growth in 2020;on the other hand,many downward cyclical forces in 2019 will begin to change their directions in 2020,which will ease the macroeconomic downward trend and the downward range will be significantly narrower than that in 2019.The reversal of some cyclical forces and the continuous improvement of China’s institutional dividend will be the most noteworthy and expected new changes in 2020.