Progress in Research on the Influences of Climatic Changes on the Industrial Economy in China

气候变化对工业经济系统的影响研究进展（英文）

Global climate changes have led to ocean acidification,ice and snow melting,a continuous rise in temperature,and an increasing frequency of extreme weather events,with profound impacts on the social economic system.With the aggravation from climate changes,even the industrial fields with a relatively strong resistance to climatic changes have also suffered serious losses.At present,the vulnerability of the industrial field is growing,and the absolute economic losses are increasing.The quantitative evaluation of these industrial economic losses is therefore an important basis for formulating policies to tackle global climate change,and analyzing the current research progress can provide ideas and methods for the effective evaluation of the industrial economy.Therefore,in this paper,we summarized both the positive and negative effects of climate changes on the industrial fields and found that the influences of climatic changes on different industrial sectors are slightly variable.For example,while the mining industry,so far,has positively responded to the changing climate,severe weather events such as storms,drought,and rain could severely impede the normal production and business operation activities of the mining industry in the future.The manufacturing industry mostly involves indoor jobs,which are relatively resistant to extreme weather events,and some industries have complex response mechanisms.In terms of the construction industry,its losses are mainly indirect through increased electricity costs.The production and supply industries for electricity,heat,and water would suffer transmission supply losses in extreme weather events;and as the largest carbon emission industries,the costs of emission reduction would affect the economic growth of this sector in the short term.Overall,the industrial sectors pay relatively high costs for climate change mitigation and adaptation,and therefore,the quantitative evaluation of industrial economic losses through models is crucial for both the development of reasonable policies and ensuring a smooth and consistent growth of the industrial economy.

全球气候变化导致全球海洋酸化、冰雪融化、气温持续升高、极端天气发生频率增多,进而对社会经济系统产生深远影响。随着气候变化的加剧,抵抗气候风险能力较强的工业领域也遭受了严重的损失。目前,工业领域的脆弱性不断加深,工业经济损失的绝对量也在不断增长,定量评估工业经济损失是制定应对气候变化政策的重要依据,通过梳理当前的研究进展,可以为工业经济的评估提供思路和方法。因此,本文对工业领域受气候变化影响的正负面效应进行概述,发现不同工业部门受到气候变化的影响略有不同,部分区域的采矿业对气温升高的响应为正向,但风暴、干旱以及降雨会破坏采矿业的正常生产经营活动;制造业大多是室内作业,抵抗极端气候的能力相对较强,部分产业反应机制复杂;建筑业的损失多集中在间接损失,通过电力成本提高等反馈;电力、热力及水的生产和供应业在遭受极端气候时会出现传输供应损失,且作为碳排放最大的行业,其减排成本短期内会影响该部门的经济增长。工业部门为了应对气候变化付出了较大的适应和减缓成本,因此通过模型量化评估工业经济的损失,有利于制定合理的政策,保证工业经济平稳有序的增长。