基于ELES模型的‘限购’和‘限贷’政策效果分析

Effect analysis of the‘limit purchase’and‘limit loan’policies based on ELES model

通过将住房“限购令”分离为“限购”和“限贷”两种房地产调控政策,建立了基于扩展线性支出系统的城镇居民住房需求模型.理论分析和实证考察了这两种政策各自对城市居民住房及其它消费决策的影响.研究发现,“限贷”政策总会对居民的住房以及其它消费产生影响,而“限购”政策仅在收入房价比高于某个阈值时方生效.通过对一线、二线和三线城市居民的消费倾向参数进行估算,发现2010年时“限购”政策仅对我国二线城市有效,对于一线以及绝大部分三线城市都无效,而2016年时“限购”政策对大部分一线、二线城市均未生效.据此,指出对于房地产市场的调控不应一刀切:而应采取“因城施策”和“因时施策”的策略.

A housing demand model of urban residents is constructed based on the extended linear expenditure system(ELES),which separates the housing‘limit purchase-loan order’into two kinds of real estate regulation policies‘limit purchase’and‘limit loan’.The two policies’separate impacts on urban residents’housing and other consumption decisions are analyzed theoretically and tested with real data.The results show that limit loan policy always impacts on housing and other consumption,while the limit purchase policy takes effect only if the ratio of income to price is higher than a threshold.By estimating the consumption propensity parameters of residents in first-tier,second-tier and third-tier cities,it is found that in 2010 the limit purchase policy was effective for second-tier cities in China,but not for first-tier and most third-tier cities.However,in 2016,the limit purchase policy did not take effect in most first-tier and second-tier cities.Therefore,it is pointed out that the regulation and control of the real estate market should not use a one-size-fits-all approach,but should use different approaches in different cities and in different times.