中国网贷效率影响因素及其演变轨迹

Research on the Factors Affecting China’s Online Loan Efficiency and Its Evolution

利用2014年1月-2019年1月中国P2P网贷行业的月度面板数据,构建随机前沿模型,对中国P2P网贷行业的效率水平进行测度,并探究其影响因素,重点考察《网络借贷信息中介机构业务活动管理暂行办法》(简称《办法》)的颁布对行业发展的影响,在此基础上进行σ收敛和β收敛检验。结果显示:中国网贷行业劳动投入产出弹性大于资本投入,行业处于规模报酬递减阶段;正常运营平台数量、借款人数对网贷效率为正向影响,平均借款期限、综合利率对网贷效率为负向影响,《办法》颁布会抑制网贷效率水平,且正常运营平台数量越多,平均借款期限越长,平均借款人数越多,《办法》对网贷行业的抑制效果越小,但综合利率则对网贷行业的作用效果不明显;整体上我国网贷行业效率发展水平呈现"倒U型",并且敛散性在《办法》颁布前后发生了变化,颁布前具有收敛性,颁布后呈发散性。

Using the monthly panel data of China’s P2 P online loan industry from January 2014 to January 2019,a stochastic frontier model is constructed.This study measures the efficiency level of China’s P2 P online loan industry and explores its influencing factors.By focusing on the impact of the promulgation of the Interim Measures on Business Activity Management of Internet Lending Information Intermediary Agency(referred to as the"Measures")on the development of the industry,theσconvergence andβconvergence were tested.The results show that the labor input-output elasticity of China’s online loan industry is greater than the capital input,and the industry is in the stage of diminishing returns to scale.At the same time,the number of normal operating platforms and the number of borrowers have a positive impact on the efficiency of online lending,and the average borrowing period and comprehensive interest rate have a negative impact on the efficiency of online lending.The promulgation of the Measures will curb the level of online loan efficiency,and the more the number of normal operating platforms,the longer the average borrowing period,the larger the average number of borrowers,and the smaller the restraining effect of the Measures on the online loan industry,but the effect of the comprehensive interest rates on the online loan industry is not obvious.On the whole,the efficiency development level of the online loan industry in China has shown an"inverted U-shape",convergent before promulgation and divergent after promulgation.