全球金融危机后汇率理论和政策的反思与新进展

Reflections and New Progress of Exchange Rate Theories and Policies after Global Financial Crisis

2008年全球金融危机以来,主流经济学界对汇率决定机理以及汇率预测等方面的研究有了新的进展,政策界对汇率制度安排也有一些新的观点和实践,主要包括:在汇率政策方面,全球金融危机后一些国家的汇率制度由浮动制转变为稳定制;针对新兴经济体的研究倾向于支持央行将汇率因素纳入货币政策考虑范围;"二元悖论"的提出和相关争论,提醒政策制定者要更加关注全球金融周期的影响以及美国货币政策的溢出效应。人民币汇率的决定因素很复杂,购买力平价背后的贸易套利动机、利率平价背后的利率套利动机等都会对人民币汇率产生重要影响。中国应该在保持人民币汇率基本稳定的前提下,适当增强人民币汇率的灵活性,以更好地维持货币政策有效性和平抑宏观经济波动。

Since the global financial crisis of 2008,the mainstream economists have made new progress in the study of exchange rate determining mechanism and its prediction,and policy makers worldwide also have some new views and practices on the exchange rate regime.This paper systematically summarizes the new studies on the determination theories of exchange rate,empirical tests of these theories,exchange rate prediction,and exchange rate regime and policy.We find that after the global financial crisis exchange rate regimes in some countries have changed from floating regimes to stable ones;researches on emerging market economies tend to support central banks to include the exchange rate factor in monetary policy making;the raise of"Dilemma Hypothesis"and related debates remind policy makers to pay more attention to the impact of the global financial cycle and the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations for the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,and the policy making of China\s monetary policy and capital control policy.