养老保险费率降低的工资与就业效应——基于上市公司的实证分析

The Effects of Reduced Pension Contribution Rate on Wage and Employment:An Empirical Analysis Based on Listed Companies

养老保险是企业用工成本不可或缺的组成部分,其费率削减能否提高工资和促进就业呢?本文以2005-2015年中国A股上市公司为样本,山东省养老保险企业缴费比例率先降低为"准自然实验",运用经典双重差分方法分析降低费率政策给企业带来的工资、就业净效应。研究表明,从整体上看,降低费率政策有利于企业提高员工工资水平,对企业雇佣员工无明显挤出效应。进一步按企业属性和行业分类的分析发现,政策实施后,国有企业的工资效应为显著性正效应,非制造业企业的工资与就业分别为显著性正、负效应,而非国有和制造业企业的工资与就业效应均不显著。上述研究结论有助于理解养老保险费率降低对企业雇佣员工数量及工资水平的影响,丰富工资与就业的相关研究,并在一定程度上对中国养老保险费率改革具有借鉴意义。

Old-age insurance is an indispensable part of labor costs. Can the reduced contribution rate raise wages and promote employment? This paper takes A-share listed companies in China from 2005 to 2015 as a sample and the situations of companies in Shandong province, which took the lead in reducing the contribution rate, as a "quasi-natural experiment", and uses the classical DID method to analyze the net effect of the policy on wages and employment. The research results show that, overall, the policy of lowering contributions is beneficial to wage raises, and has no significant crowding-out effect on the employment of enterprises. Further, it can be found that after policies start to come into effect, the wage effect of state-owned enterprises is significantly positive. In addition, the wage and employment effects of non-manufacturing enterprises are positive and negative respectively, while the wage and employment effects of non-state-owned and manufacturing enterprises are not significant. The above conclusions help to reveal the effect of cutting the pension contribution rate on the number of employees and wage levels, enrich the relevant research on wages and employment, and to some extent, shed some light on the reform of old-age insurance contribution rate in China.