“一带一路”国际贸易的影响因素研究——基于贸易协定与物流绩效的实证检验

Research on the Influencing Factors of the “Belt and Road” International Trade ——An Empirical Test Based on Trade Agreements and Logistics Performance

贸易协定和物流绩效是发展国际贸易的重要影响因素,以物流绩效指数(LPI)作为研究切入点,运用改进的引力模型进行分析,发现签署贸易协定、国家物流绩效对我国与"一带一路"沿线国家贸易水平有显著的正面影响,国家间的距离则对国家间的整体贸易有显著负面影响。货物在预定或预期的时间内到达收货人的频率、追踪查询货物的能力、贸易和运输相关基础设施的质量、安排价格具有竞争力的货运的难易度这四个构成物流绩效的要素,对进出口贸易均有显著的正面影响,物流服务的能力和质量对"一带一路"沿线国家的出口贸易有显著正面影响,对其进口贸易无显著影响,清关程序的效率对进出口贸易均无显著的影响。提高"一带一路"沿线国际贸易水平的途径有四种:一是创新区域贸易合作模式;二是补齐物流绩效短板;三是强化基础设施互联互通;四是加强文化交流。

Trade agreement and logistics performance are important factors which affected the international trade.The improved gravity model is used to analyse the effects of trade agreement and logistics performance index(LPI).It is found that the signing of trade agreements and national LPI is positively affecting the international trade along the"Belt and Road"area.The distance between countries has a significant negative impact on international trade between countries.There are four indicators of LPI have significant positive impact on export and import trade.One of the indicators of LPI named capacity and quality of logistics services have a significant positive impact on the export trade of countries along the"Belt and Road",but have no significant impact on their import trade.Another indicator of LPI named the efficiency of customs clearance procedures is not significant for import and export trade.Four suggestions are proposed to improve the quality of international trade along the"Belt and Road":innovating regional trade cooperation mode,forcing the disadvantage in logistics performance,strengthening the infrastructure,and strengthening cultural exchanges.