基于效用理论的海外油气勘探区块优选模型

Optimization Model of Overseas Oil and Gas Exploration Block Based on Utility Theory

近年来,中国油气对外依存度不断攀升,加之国际油价波动剧烈,中国石油公司在海外的油气开采效益亟待保证,区块优选的重要性日益凸显。针对海外陆上常规油气勘探项目建立区块优选模型,海外油气勘探区块优选模型包括评价体系构建和综合评价两部分。首先,在评价体系构建中,将区块优选的影响因素归纳为经济价值、风险和战略价值;其次,为了使评价结果最大程度地让决策者满意,在区块优选影响因素分析基础上基于效用理论对区块进行综合评价,通过定义效用函数和主客观组合赋权建立加权效用矩阵,采用投影法计算各区块与理想区块的接近程度,根据综合相对贴近度进行区块排序并给出投资优先级;最后,对模型进行案例应用,通过情景分析给出决策者不同偏好下对应的区块排序。基于效用理论的海外油气勘探区块优选模型对石油公司的投资决策具有一定的参考价值。

In recent years,China′s oil and gas dependence on foreign countries has been rising,coupled with the fluctuation of international oil prices,China′s oil and gas companies in overseas development benefits need to be guaranteed,and the importance of block selection is increasingly prominent.Block selection model is established for overseas onshore conventional oil and gas exploration projects including evaluation system structure and overall evaluation.First,the influencing factors of oil and gas selection are summarized into economic value,risk and strategic value in the establishment of evaluation system.Then,in order to make the evaluation results satisfy decision makers to the greatest extent,this paper conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the block based on the utility theory and the analysis of influencing factors of block selection.The weighted utility matrix was established by defining the utility function and combining the subjective and objective weights,and the proximity of each block to the ideal block was calculated by the projection method.Finally,through the case analysis of the model application,the corresponding block ordering of decision makers with different preferences is given.The model provides reference for the investment decision making of oil companies.