辐射事故应急预案的模糊综合评价

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Radiation Accident Emergency Plan

为增强辐射事故应急预案编制及修订的科学性、针对性和实用性,依据辐射事故应急预案的特点和法律法规要求,基于层次分析法构建目标层、准则层和方案层三级层次结构,提出9项准则和39项评价指标并计算权重,建立辐射事故应急预案综合评价模型及计算方法。层次分析结果表明,监测和预警、应急监测、恢复行动等3项指标在应急预案制修订过程中权重较大。应用该方法对某辐射事故应急预案实例进行评价,评价结果为一般,与实际情况相符。

A three-level structure of target layer,criterion layer and scheme layer was constructed based on analytic hierarchy process,according to the characteristics of radiation accident emergency plan and the requirements of laws and regulations,for enhancing the scientificity,pertinence and practicability of the formulation and revision of the emergency plan.39 evaluation indicators derived from 9 criteria were put forward and their weights were calculated.The results showed that the three indicators which were monitoring and early warning,emergency monitoring and recovery action weighted higher in the formulation and revision of the emergency plan.This method was applied in a living example.The evaluation result was ordinary,which was consistent with the actual situation.