我国省级分部门杠杆率对经济增长的门槛效应研究

A Study on the Threshold Effect of China’s Provincial Sectoral Leverage Ratio on Economic Growth

本文首先对2008年-2016年28个省的居民部门、地方政府部门和非金融企业部门杠杆率进行了详细测算,并基于该数据使用门槛回归模型,来研究省级分部门杠杆率对于经济增长的影响。研究发现:各省的地区经济发展水平、地方政府治理水平、金融规模、投资率、通胀率和城镇化在杠杆率对经济增长起到影响的过程中存在显著的门槛效应,从而各省不同的初始条件,决定了在不同省份、不同部门实施"去杠杆"政策的异质性经济效应。据此,建议各省结合本地实际的初始条件,因地制宜地发挥不同部门杠杆率对经济可持续增长的动力。各省均不应降低居民部门的杠杆,而"去杠杆"的重点应放在去低政府治理水平地区、或低金融规模地区、或低GDP增长地区的非金融企业部门杠杆,以及去低通胀地区的地方政府杠杆。

The authors, having first provided a detailed calculation of the sectoral leverage ratios respectively of the local residents, provincial governments and non-financial enterprises in twenty-eight Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2016, construct a threshold regression model based on the data to explore the impact of sectoral leverage on the economic growth in each province. The empirical results show that there exist significant threshold effects of regional per capita GDP, local governance level, financial development, investment, inflation and urbanization on the local economic growth. Therefore, differentiated initial conditions in various provinces will result in heterogeneous economic effects of the deleverage policy in different sectors of different provinces. Based on these findings, it is suggested that each province should accommodate its local conditions to tailor its sectoral leverage and provide economic impetus for the local economy. While no residential leverage should be reduced in any province, the emphasis of the deleverage policy should be laid on reducing the leverage of non-financial enterprises in provinces with low governance level, or low financial development, or low GDP growth, and on reducing local government leverage in provinces with low inflation rate.