煤矿安全状态的变权理论评价模型及其工程应用

Evaluation model and engineering application of variable weight theory on coal mine safety state

为了克服现有煤矿安全评价方法的局限和不足,在基于物元可拓方法对煤矿安全状态进行综合评判的基础上,引用变权理论对指标权重进行修正,并采用贴近度替代最大隶属度准则构建基于变权物元可拓的煤矿安全状态评价模型。结合敏感性分析指出评价对象对权重和评价结果的影响并得出评价指标的敏感性。应用结果表明:通过不同权重计算方法比较,变权法对异常指标作用不会进一步放大,可以有效反映煤矿的真实安全状态;员工的月平均培训时间是影响煤矿安全状态的敏感性指标,从而可实现对敏感环节的及时排查;基于该模型的煤矿安全状态等级为较安全,偏向于安全等级的程度较大,与其他方法得出的结果一致,验证了现有的研究样本,同时给出了待评综合安全状态等级随各指标变动的影响程度。

In order to overcome the limitation and deficiency of the existing evaluation methods of coal mine safety,based on the comprehensive evaluation of coal mine safety state on the basis of matter-element extension method,the variable weight theory is used to modify the index weight,and a safety evaluation model of coal mine based on variable weight matter-element extension is constructed by replacing the maximum membership criterion with proximity degree.At the same time,combined with the sensitivity analysis,this paper points out the influence of the evaluation object on the weight and the evaluation result and obtains the sensitivity of the evaluation index.The application results show that the variable weight method can reflect the real safety state of coal mine effectively,and the effect of the variable weight method on abnormal index will not be further amplified;the average monthly training time of employees is an sensitivity index that affects the safety status of coal mines,thus realizing the timely screening of sensitive links;the safety grade of coal mine based on this model is relatively safe and tends to the safety level to a large extent,which is consistent with the results obtained by other methods,the existing research samples are verified,and the influence degree of comprehensive safety state grade to be evaluated with the change of each index is also given.