“十四五”时期我国跨过高收入国家门槛预测及风险应对

The Forecast of Crossing the Threshold of High-Income Countries of China and Its Risk Response During the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan

从全球经济增长长周期考察,2025年高收入国家门槛将提高到人均GDP约14 100美元。对2035年前我国潜在经济增长率和人民币汇率升值的情景分析表明,"十四五"时期末我国进入高收入国家行列是大概率事件。但不容忽视的是,外部不稳定性、不确定性因素错综复杂,我国人口老龄化程度加深和经济金融风险可能反弹,将给"十四五"时期经济持续稳定增长带来风险和挑战。应主动创造于我有利的发展环境,加快体制改革和技术创新,努力提高全要素生产率,充分挖掘经济增长潜力,积极防范化解经济金融风险,确保"十四五"时期顺利进入高收入国家行列。

The threshold of high-income countries in 2025 may increase to about $ 14100 per capita GDP from a long-term review of global economic growth. China’s entry into the ranks of high-income countries at the end of the 14 th Five-Year Plan period is a high probability event based on a scenario analysis of China’s potential economic growth rate and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate before 2035. However,it cannot be ignored that the uncertain factors of external instability,the deepening of China’s population aging and the rebound of economic and financial risks would bring risks and challenges to the sustainability and stability of economic growth during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period. We should create a favorable development environment,accelerate system reform and technological innovation,strive to improve total factor productivity,tap the potential of economic growth fully,prevent and mitigate economic and financial risks actively,to ensure that we will entry into the ranks of high-income countries during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.