内生性因素的多维贫困测度及因素变动分析——基于南疆四地州农村调查问卷

A Multi-Dimensional Poverty Measurement of Endogenous Factors——Based on the Rural Questionnaire in Southern Xinjiang

贫困影响因素的统计测度是“精准扶贫、精准脱贫”的前提和基础,通过测度新疆南疆四地州农户多维度贫困状态,以此推进脱贫攻坚任务,可为精准扶贫工作的有效开展提供科学理论指导。本文改变传统单维视角,基于多维贫困测度理论,利用南疆四地州农户调查数据,以Alkire-Foster多维贫困测度模型为基础,构建了多维贫困测度一般分析模型和因素变动分析,从内生性视角对南疆四地州进行多维度贫困测度分析。测度分析发现:单贫困发生率最为显著的是就业、厨房燃料、文化娱乐服务、收入指标;至少在4个维度贫困的农户占比为73.19%,贫困结构相对复杂;同时,就业、收入、教育三个维度指标对多维贫困指数M的贡献率较高。因素变动分析中发现,就业对贫困线变动反应程度较高,成为了南疆四地州深度贫困维度;维度变动分析中,就业和厨房燃料维度指标灵敏度较大,相比之下就业更为显著;由于南疆四地州地域的特殊情况,整体贫困结构复杂,相应的多维贫困发生率对权重变动的变动幅度比多维贫困指数更大。

The statistical measurement of poverty influencing factors,the premise and basis of"Targeted Approach to Alleviating Poverty",would be a theoretical guide in promoting the task of poverty alleviation and targeted poverty alleviation.By analyzing the deep-seated causes of poverty from a multi-dimensional perspective,this paper formulated a multi-dimensional poverty measurement based on the multi-dimensional poverty measurement theory and the Alkire-Foster multi-dimensional poverty measurement model.The analysis found that the most significant iindicator of single poverty was employment,kitchen fuel,cultural and recreational services and income;the proportion of poor households in at least 4 dimensions was 73.19%,and the poverty structure was relatively complicated;at the same time,employment,income,education contributed more to the multidimensional poverty index M.In factor analysis,it found that the poverty line of employment had a higher degree of response,which became the deep poverty dimension in the four prefectures in southern Xinjiang.In the analysis of dimensional changes,employment and kitchen fuel were more sensitive,employment being more sensitive.Due to the special situation of the four prefectures,the overall poverty structure was complex,and the corresponding multi-dimensional poverty incidence had a greater change in the weight change than the multi-dimensional poverty index.