一带一路背景下中国对中亚五国出口商品结构升级研究——基于显性比较优势、技术附加值和质量水平的分析

On the Upgrading of China’s Export Commodity Structure to the Five Central Asian Countries against the Background of the "Belt and Road Initiative"

中亚五国处于“丝绸之路经济带”的核心区域,研究中国对中亚五国出口商品结构升级对双边贸易发展具有十分重要的理论价值和现实意义。文章从显性比较优势、技术附加值、质量水平等角度对中国出口中亚五国二十多年的商品贸易结构进行分析。结果表明:(1)从贸易份额和显性比较优势看,中国对土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦出口商品结构升级较为明显,对塔吉克斯坦具有升级发展趋势,对吉尔吉斯斯坦仍停留在初级产品和低技术制成品;(2)从附加值指数和总体技术水平看,中国对中亚五国出口商品结构不断优化升级,中等技术制成品和高级技术制成品达到40.39%,但是总体技术水平没有显著提高;(3)从质量水平看,中国对中亚五国出口的初级产品质量水平不断提高,结构优化升级明显;出口的资源密集型产品、低技术制成品、中等技术制成品质量水平呈下降趋势,逆结构优化升级明显;出口的高技术制成品质量水平虽有下降趋势,但质量差异程度均大于0.15,仍属于高端产品。除外,还发现在不同时间段中国对中亚五国出口的商品均呈现向中等、高等质量升级。基于此,文章提出继续深化经济体制改革、把握国内需求市场、优化出口商品结构、构建合理有效的贸易支持和保护体系等政策建议。

This paper analyzed the commodity trade structure of China's exports to the five Central Asian countries over the past 20 years in terms of dominant comparative advantages,technology added value and quality level.The results showed that(1)in terms of trade share and dominant comparative advantages,the upgrading of the export structure to Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan was comparatively obvious,to Tajikistan was a developing trend,and to Kyrgyzstan was still about the primary products and low-tech finished products;(2)in terms of the value-added index and the overall technical level,China's export commodity structure was continuously optimized and upgraded,the medium-level technological finished products and advanced technology products reaching 40.39%,but the overall technical level growing insignificantly;(3)in terms of the quality level,China's primary products quality exported to the five Central Asian countries was continuously improved,and the structure was optimalized and upgraded.The export-oriented resource-intensive products,low-tech finished products and medium-tech finished products declined.The inverse structural optimization and upgrading was obvious.Although the quality level of exported high-tech products had a downward trend,the quality difference was greater than 0.15,which was still high-end products.In addition,it was found that China's exports to the countries showed a medium-to-high quality upgrading in different periods.