“一带一路”钢铁出口竞争与贸易潜力估计——基于中美贸易冲突背景的弹性分析方法

“Belt and Road”Iron and Steel Export Competition and Trade Potential Estimation——An Elastic Analysis Approach in the Context of Sino-US Trade Conflicts

中美贸易冲突引发了中国出口向美国之外市场另谋出路的问题,这涉及到中国出口产品对竞争对手的竞争替代能力以及目标市场的贸易潜力。本文聚焦于钢铁行业以及"一带一路"市场,利用替代弹性、进口需求弹性进行了贸易潜力的全新估计,研究发现:(1)在"一带一路"区域,中国对日本、韩国、德国、印度和俄罗斯等五大竞争对手的出口替代弹性较大,尤其是对印度,凸显出较为显著的来自竞争对手的"需求转移效应",但该效应呈现空间差异,在东南亚、西亚、中东和南亚等邻近国家相对较强,在中欧和东欧等较远国家相对较弱;(2) 37个"一带一路"主要钢铁进口国中大部分的进口需求弹性都较大,"需求创造效应"较为显著,这可能与这些国家大部分人均收入较低对价格相对敏感等特征有关;(3)中国的钢铁贸易潜力较大国主要集中在东南亚、南亚和西亚等地区,与印度、日本和韩国相应潜力较大国的空间重合度较高,与德国和俄罗斯的重合度相对较少,但结合价格竞争力,印度对中国钢铁出口的竞争性相对更大。基于研究结果,本文提出了通过降低成本及出口价格来发挥贸易潜力的针对性政策建议。

The Sino-US trade conflict has triggered the problem of Chinese exports making a different exit out of the US market. This involves the competitive substitution ability of Chinese exports to competitors and the trading potential of the target market. Focusing on the iron and steel industry and the "Belt and Road"market,this paper used the elasticity of substitution and the elasticity of import demand to make a new estimate of trade potential. The study finds that:(1) In the"Belt and Road"region,China has greater export substitution elasticities to its competitors such as Japan,South Korea,Germany,India and Russia,especially for India,highlighting China ’ s "demand shift effect"on competitors. But the effect is spatially different,relatively strong in neighboring countries such as Southeast Asia,West Asia,the Middle East and South Asia,and relatively weak in far-off countries such as Central and Eastern Europe;(2) Most of the 37 major iron and steel importing countries in "Belt and Road"have substantial import demand elasticity,showing a significant "demand creation effect"which may be related to consumption characteristics such as low per capita income in these countries and therefore somewhat more sensitive to prices;(3) China’s exporting countries with large iron and steel trade potential,are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia,South Asia and West Asia which greatly overlap with India,Japan and South Korea ’s and a relatively small amount with Germany and Russia’s. But in combination of price competitiveness,India is competing against Chinese iron and steel exports relatively more. Based on the research results,this paper proposes targeted policy recommendations to maximize trade potential by reducing costs and export prices.