当前日本政治形势与修宪问题

Japan’s Political Situation and Its Constitutional Amending

2019年是安倍晋三重新执政的第七年,而其执念的修宪问题一直伴随其间。在7月举行的第25届参议院选举中,安倍首相一改2012年至今所举行的四次国政选举方针,将自卫队入宪明文写入自民党选举公约,刻意使修宪问题成为选战的重要争议点。但选举结果,以自民党为核心的修宪势力未及修宪所需2/3多数门槛。未来,安倍领导的自民党一方面力图在国会重新整合集结修宪势力,希冀重新跨越修宪门槛,同时迫使在野党就范,力图尽早在国会通过"修宪原案",进而提交国民投票;另一方面则利用政治资源广泛动员民众,为国民投票预做准备。安倍能否实现任期内修宪的政治夙愿,也即日本修宪的走势,势必引起世人强烈关注。

2019 is the seventh year since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came back to power,and the issue of constitutional amendment has been his persistent pursuit ever since. In the 25 th Senate election held in July this year,Abe changed his policy of the last four national elections after 2012,deliberately making the issue of constitutional amendment an important controversial point in the election campaign,and declaring in the LDP election convention the writing of the self-defense team into the constitution. However as the election result shows,the pro-amendment power with the LDP as its core has not yet reached the two thirds of the seats required. Therefore,on one hand,the LDP led by Abe tries to reintegrate and assemble the pro-amendment forces in order to transcend the threshold,while at the same time forcing the opposition parties to step back and endeavoring to pass the"constitutional amendment"in the Diet as soon as possible and then submit to the national vote. On the other hand,they are using political resources to extensively mobilize the people in preparation for the national vote. Therefore,whether Abe can realize his political aspiration of amending the constitution during his term of office,that is,the trend of Japan’s constitutional amendment,is bound to attract the world’s attention.