安倍第二次执政时期日台安全关系

Security Relations between Japan and Taiwan during Abe’s Second Term

安倍第二次上台执政后开始将发展与台湾地区的关系、特别是安全关系作为其对华遏制战略的重要抓手,并得到了2016年上台的蔡英文当局的应和。双方以非传统安全议题为突破口,不断升级"二轨对话"平台并着手搭建"准官方"交流机制,甚至暗中推进军事情报共享和技术合作,图谋建立美日台"准同盟关系"。不过,中日关系、两岸关系、美东亚战略以及日台结构性矛盾等因素的牵扯和掣肘,使日台安全关系被各方视为战略博弈工具的同时,也不可避免地有着脆弱性和自限性,这使得日台在非传统安全领域合作虽有限提升,但注定难以突破军事合作的"天花板"。未来一段时期,日台安全互动仍将在隐蔽性原则下,以模糊政策试探大陆底线,值得中国大陆高度警惕。

After Shinzo Abe came to power for the second time,the Japanese administration started to reinforce the relationship,especially the security relationship with Taiwan as a means to"contain"China's Mainland,and such effort has found its echo from Tsai Ing-wen’s administration since 2016. The two parties started by discussing nontraditional security issues and keep upgrading the "track II dialogues"as well as quasi-official communication mechanisms. Japan and Taiwan administration even secretly pushed forward their intelligence-sharing cooperation,which can be considered a sign of trying to forge a quasi-alliance among Japan,U.S. and Taiwan. However,multiple factors,such as the normalization of China-Japan relationship,the recent development of cross-strait relations and U.S. east Asia strategy,are binding a "breakthrough"of Japan-Taiwan security cooperation. As a result,the security interactions between Japan and Taiwan may go under the surface in the future,which means China's Mainland should be on high alert.