“答非所问”与IPO市场表现——来自网上路演期间的经验证据

Irrelevant Answers and IPO Market Performance:Evidence from the IPO Online Roadshow in China

与国外发达的股票市场不同,中国股票市场中投资者以中小投资者为主,而中小投资者往往无法参与IPO公司召开的线下路演。因此,网上路演则成为IPO公司向中小投资者进行推介的主要方式。网上路演最重要的部分是中小投资者和公司管理层之间的问答环节。文章以2004-2017年中小板和创业板的1 434家IPO公司召开的网上路演为研究样本,利用文本分析法对网上路演问答环节中管理层"答非所问"的现象进行了研究,并实证分析了管理层的"答非所问"与IPO抑价率和IPO首日流动性之间的可能关联。实证结果表明,管理层的"答非所问"与IPO抑价率之间呈现显著的负相关关系;而在IPO首日流动性方面,管理层的"答非所问"的程度越高,则IPO首日流动性就会越低。进一步的分析还发现,管理层的"答非所问"与IPO后公司股票的中长期表现之间也呈现显著的负相关关系。文章的研究结论表明,IPO网上路演是投资者特别是中小投资者了解IPO公司的重要渠道,可以帮助投资者更好地对公司进行估值;而网上路演中管理层的"答非所问"是一个重要的信息特征,对IPO抑价率、IPO首日流动性以及IPO中长期表现都有着较好的解释能力。

Unlike foreign developed stock markets,investors in China’s stock market are dominated by small investors,while small investors are unable to participate in the offline roadshow held by IPO companies.Therefore,the online roadshow is the main way through which IPO companies promote themselves to small investors. The most important part of the online roadshow is the questions and answers session. Investors obtain information that they are interested in through questions,and managers convey useful information to investors through answers. However,when investors’ questions make it difficult for managers to answer,or if managers directly answer the questions,they will convey some negative information about the company,managers may choose to refuse to answer the questions,but this will be understood by investors as a possible dilemma for the company. Therefore,managers will adopt a response strategy that is giving irrelevant answers and responding in a more euphemistic manner. Then,during the IPO online roadshow,can investors detect managers giving irrelevant answers,does this affect investors’ valuation of the company,and is it rational for investors to judge the company’s value through managers’ irrelevant answer? These issues are all concerns of this paper.We attempt to answer these questions through textual analysis and empirical study. Specifically,we collect the IPO online roadshow for 1434 companies listed on the SME and GEM over the period from 2004 to2017,and use the textual analysis method to measure the degree of managers’ irrelevant answer during the IPO online roadshow. Then we examine the relationship between managers’ irrelevant answer,IPO underprice and IPO first day liquidity. Our results suggest that there is a significant negative relationship between managers’ irrelevant answer and IPO underprice after controlling other factors. Our findings also suggest that the higher the level of managers’ irrelevant answer,the lower the IPO first day liquidity. Through further analysis,it is also found that there is a significant negative relationship between managers’ irrelevant answer and the longterm performance of the company’s stock after the IPO.Our study contributes to the literature in several important ways. First,we expand the data sources of financial text analysis. Second,this paper studies the phenomenon of managers giving irrelevant answers during the IPO online roadshow,and measures the degree of managers’ irrelevant answer,which enriches the research perspective of financial text analysis. Third,This paper attempts to analyze the content of interaction,focusing on the phenomenon of giving irrelevant answers in interactive communication,which expands the dimension of interaction effectiveness measurement. Fourth,this paper finds that during the IPO online roadshow,managers’ irrelevant answer is a negative signal for investors,and the market will react negatively,which provides a new research perspective for IPO pricing.