权力格局、国王支持与泰国军人政权的韧性

Configuration of Power, Support from the King, and the Resilience of Military Regimes in Thailand

学界对发展中国家政权韧性(持续时长和稳定性)的研究已经积累了大量知识,但一直未重视军人政权差异化的韧性问题。通过比较1947~1992年间泰国的5次军人政权,文章解释了为什么不同的军人政权在韧性上有着显著差异。文章认为:只有建立在军事寡头之上且得到国王强力支持的军人政权,才享有高度韧性(长期持续且有高稳定性);建立在军事寡头之上但缺乏国王强力支持的军人政权,只具有中度韧性(长期持续但只有低稳定性);建立在文武多头之上的军人政权,无论是否得到国王的强力支持,都难以长期执政,故只具有低度韧性。文章有助于推动对军人政权进行专门、细致的后续研究。

Researchers have accumulated a great deal of knowledge about the regime resilience(duration and stability) in developing countries, but the differentiated resilience of military regimes has not been taken seriously. In this article, we explain why there are substantial variations in resilience among different military regimes. By comparing five military regimes in Thailand from 1947 to 1992, the article argues that only the military regime based on military oligarchy and strongly supported by the King can enjoy a high degree of resilience(long duration and high stability);a military regime based on military oligarchy but lacking strong support from the King has only a moderate level of resilience(long duration but low stability);the military regime established on civil-military polyarchy, regardless of whether it gains strong support from the King or not, is difficult to stay in power for a long time, so it can only show a low level of resilience. This article will help scholars carry out specific and meticulous studies on the military regimes in developing countries.