中国木质家具出口的二元边际及其影响因素分析

Analysis of Dual Margin and Influencing Factors of China’s Wooden Furniture Export

木质家具出口在中国木质林产品出口贸易中占据重要地位。对1996-2015年中国与15个主要木质林产品贸易伙伴的木质家具出口数据进行二元边际分解并对其影响因素进行分析,结果表明:中国木质家具出口贸易的增加几乎完全来自集约边际的贡献;集约边际与目的地市场规模和多边阻力呈正相关,与可变贸易成本和相对劳动生产率负相关;加入世贸组织对集约边际的提升有促进作用。文中结合实证分析结果和木质家具贸易面临的新形势提出了具有针对性的对策和建议。

The export of wooden furniture plays an important role in wooden forest products trade of China.This paper analyzes the dual margin and influencing factors of China’s wooden furniture export based on the wooden furniture export data from 1996 to 2015 between China and its 15 major trading partners.The results find that the growth of China’s wooden furniture export almost entirely comes from intensive margin.There is a positive correlation between intensive margin and destination market scale&multilateral resistance,and a negative correlation between intensive margin and variable trade costs&relative labor productivity.China’s accession to the WTO has a positive effect to the promotion of intensive margin increase.At the end,some corresponding countermeasures are put forward on the basis of the empirical analysis and the new situation of wooden furniture trade.