基于企业减排需求的森林碳汇定价机制

Forest Carbon Sequestration Pricing Mechanism Based on Enterprises’ Demand for Carbon Emission Reduction

【目的】揭示减排企业购买森林碳汇的需求价格形成机制及政策影响因素,为调控和规范森林碳汇交易市场的价格走向、确保森林碳汇价格在有效引导相关利益各方资源配置中的基础性作用提供依据。【方法】基于方向性距离函数计算上海火电行业19家企业589个节能减排单位样本连续3年的平均单位边际减排成本,利用Benitez模型计算浙江省杉木人工林20年期碳汇项目年均单位固碳成本,在此基础上,综合考虑各种政策因素,采用罗宾斯泰因(Rubinstein)模型对基于企业减排需求的森林碳汇价格最终决定机制进行模型计算和模拟分析。【结果】上海火电行业19家企业589个节能减排单位平均单位边际减排成本为312.66元·t^-1,浙江省杉木人工林20年期碳汇项目年均单位固碳成本为217.24元·t^-1,以当前所假定的市场交易环境和政策条件,森林碳汇市场均衡价格应为234.5元·t^-1。森林碳汇市场均衡价格对罗宾斯泰因模型各参数变化的敏感度模拟分析表明,森林碳汇总量不超过企业基准年排放量的抵扣比例如果由5%上升到15%,森林碳汇市场均衡价格将由234.5元·t^-1上升到269.1元·t^-1;碳税率由1%上升到5%,森林碳汇市场均衡价格将由234.5元·t^-1上升到303.7元·t^-1;企业社会责任系数由0.55上升到0.95,森林碳汇市场均衡价格将由234.5元·t^-1下降到227.3元·t^-1;减排企业买方市场集中度由1/19上升到1,森林碳汇市场均衡价格将由234.5元·t^-1下降到218.1元·t^-1。【结论】森林碳汇总量不超过企业基准年排放量的抵扣比例、碳税率、企业社会责任系数和减排企业买方市场集中度等参数变化对森林碳汇市场均衡价格的影响较为敏感,该结论不仅可为减排企业主体、森林碳汇供给主体自觉运用市场手段、制定森林碳汇市场价格提供新途径,也能为政府在市场框架内有效实施生态补偿政策提供新思路。

【Objective】By revealing the demand price formation mechanisms and policy influencing factors for the purchase of forest carbon sequestration by emission reduction enterprises,the government will regulate and standardize the price trend of the forest carbon exchange market.It also ensures that the forest carbon sequestration price will be used to effectively guide the allocation of resources to the stakeholders and plays an increasingly important role for providing the basis.【Method】It is based on directional distance function to calculate the average unit carbon emission reduction cost of 19 enterprises with 589 energy saving and emission reduction units in Shanghai thermal power industry in 3 consecutive years.Meanwhile,it’s based on Benitez model to calculate the annual average unit carbon sequestration cost of the 20-year carbon sequestration project of Chinese fir plantation in Zhejiang Province.On this basis,considering various policy factors,this article uses Rubinstein model to analyze the forest carbon sequestration pricing mechanisms based on enterprises’demand for carbon emission reduction.【Result】The average marginal abatement cost of thermal power plants in Shanghai was 312.66 yuan·t^-1,and the annual average unit carbon sequestration cost of the 20-year carbon sequestration project of Chinese fir plantation in Zhejiang Province was 217.24 yuan·t^-1.Based on the market trading environment and policy conditions currently assumed,the equilibrium price of the forest carbon market should be 234.5 yuan·t^-1.At the same time,the simulation analysis of the sensitivity of the forest carbon market equilibrium price to changes in the model parameters shows that:if the deduction rate increases from 5%to 15%when forest carbon sequestration does not exceed the company’s baseline annual emissions,the equilibrium price of the forest carbon market will increase from 234.5 yuan·t^-1 to 269.1 yuan·t^-1;when the carbon tax rate rises from 1%to 5%,the equilibrium price will increase from 234.5 yuan·t^-1 to 303.7 yuan·t^-1;when the corporate social responsibility coefficient will increase from 0.55 to 0.95,the equilibrium price will drop from 234.5 yuan·t^-1 to 227.3 yuan·t^-1;when the buyer’s market concentration of the emission reduction company increases from 1/19 to 1,the equilibrium price will drop from 234.5 yuan·t^-1 to 218.1 yuan·t^-1.【Conclusion】The result shows that the changes of deduction proportion when the total amount of forest carbon sequestration is less than enterprises’standard annual carbon emission amount,carbon tax rate,corporate social responsibility coefficient and buyer’s market concentration of carbon emission reduction enterprises are sensitive to the market equilibrium price of forest carbon sequestration.This conclusion not only provides a new approach for carbon emission reduction enterprises and forest carbon sequestration suppliers to take market measures and set the market price of forest carbon sequestration,but also presents a new method for the government to effectively implement ecological compensation policy within the framework of market.