人口结构转变如何影响技术创新——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

How DemographicStructure Changes Affect Technology Innovation:An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文在对人口结构转变对技术创新的影响机制进行理论分析的基础上,选择中国30个省市自治区1997-2017年的省级面板数据,对两者之间的关系进行了实证检验,结果表明:人口结构转变对技术创新提升有显著影响,劳动力人口比重提高促进了技术创新水平,少儿人口比重和老年人口比重提高显著抑制了技术创新水平,并进行了地区异质性检验,结果具有一致性和稳健性。最后以R&D投入强度、人均受教育年限和交通密度为门限变量,对老龄化与技术创新之间的非线性关系进行分析,结果表明,R&D投入强度存在双重门限效应、交通密度存在单一门限效应,人均受教育年限不存在门限效应。随着R&D投入强度的增加,老年人口比重对技术创新水平的抑制作用不断减弱,交通密度降低了老年人口比重对技术创新的不利影响,因此可以通过提高R&D投入强度和交通密度等创新条件弱化老龄化对技术创新的影响。

Based on a theoretical analysis of the impact of demographic structure change on technological innovation, this paper selects 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China from 1997 to 2017 to conduct an empirical test on the relationship between the two. The results show that: the demographic structure change has a significant impact on the promotion of technological innovation. The increase in the proportion of the labor force has promoted the level of technological innovation. The increase in the proportion of children and the proportion of the elderly has significantly inhibited the level of technological innovation. The regional heterogeneity test has been performed, and the results are consistent and robustness. Finally, using R&D input intensity, per capita education years, and traffic density as threshold variables, threshold regression was used to test whether the relationship between aging and technological innovation.The results show that there is a double threshold effect on R&D input intensity and a single traffic density. Threshold effect, there is no threshold effect per capita years of education. With the increase of R&D input intensity, the inhibitory effect of the proportion of the elderly population on the level of technological innovation continues to weaken. Ttraffic density reduces the negative effect of the proportion of the elderly population on the level of technological innovation. Therefore, the impact of aging on technological innovation can be weakened by improving innovation conditions such as increasing R&D investment intensity and traffic density.