中美科技竞争的未来趋势研究——全球科技创新驱动下的产业优势转移、冲突与再平衡

Research on the Future Trend of Sino-US Science and Technology Competition——Industrial Advantage Transfer, Conflict and Rebalancing due to Global Scientific and Technological Innovation

中美科技竞争是一场交织着技术、产业、经济、政治和全球博弈等多重复杂和综合因素的地缘政治冲突,是中美高科技近50年来竞合和博弈的必然结果,其根源是在互联网全球化浪潮下,技术变革和创新驱动导致的产业竞争优势转移。中美科技竞争本质是美国借助全球霸权地位,用政治方式野蛮介入和干预高科技的政策市场竞争,瞄准以华为为代表的中国高科技领军企业和前沿领域,狙击和遏制中国高科技的崛起。面对充满变数的科技竞争,从"自下而上"的技术演进的视角出发,结合"自上而下"地缘政治的视角,更能触及问题的本质。纵观世界科学技术变革趋势,中美科技竞争必将开启一个全新的以普惠全球为目标的全球科技创新大浪潮,两国在经历全面竞争和更剧烈的冲突之后,会再次进入一个各有所长、优势互补的再平衡的新阶段。总之,中美科技竞争因全球技术变革和创新而起,也将随着技术变革和创新的继续深入而结束,成为人类文明进程中的一段弦外之音。

The Sino-US science and technology war is a geopolitical conflict involving multiple complex and comprehensive factors such as technology, industry, economy, politics and global competition. Its root cause is the inevitable phenomenon of the transfer of industrial competitive advantages due to technological changes and innovation under the tide of Internet globalization, and it is the inevitable result of the Sino-US high-tech co-opetition over the past 50 years. In essence, the science and technology war between China and the United States is that, with the help of its global hegemony, the United States intervenes in the policy market competition of high-tech through political means, and contains the rise of high-tech in China by targeting the leading enterprises and frontier fields of high-tech in China such as Huawei. In the face of this changeable war, a "bottom-up" perspective of technological evolution is more helpful than the "top-down" geopolitical perspective in terms of capturing the essence of the problem. According to the trend of technological changes, the science and technology war between China and the United States is bound to usher in a new wave of global science and technology innovation with the goal of benefiting the whole world. After experiencing comprehensive competition and more fierce conflicts, the two countries will once again enter a new stage of rebalancing with their own strengths and complementary advantages. In a word, the Sino-US science and technology war, which erupts with the global technological change and innovation, will also end with the deepening of technological change and innovation, and become an episode in the process of human civilization.