《中导条约》与全球战略稳定论析

An Analysis of the Relationship between the INF Treaty and Global Strategic Stability

《中导条约》是冷战期间美苏达成的一项重要军控条约,是全球战略稳定的支柱之一。2019年8月,美俄相继退约,引发国际社会极大关注。人们担心,条约退场将冲击全球战略稳定,刺激军备竞赛,影响欧亚安全形势,削弱国际军控体系。中国是美国退约重要借口之一,条约作废势必深刻影响中国外部安全环境。《中导条约》从诞生、发展到消亡,有着深刻的国际、国内和个人三个层面的演变动因,归根结底起决定性作用的是国际格局变迁。20世纪80年代,苏美攻守异势促成了《中导条约》的诞生;进入21世纪后,北约对俄的挤压以及中导技术扩散促使俄罗斯抛出条约全球化倡议;近年来,美国霸权地位相对衰落促其选择退约。但美俄两国政治形势变化及领导人更迭也深刻影响了条约的“生、住、变、灭”的时机和方式。戈尔巴乔夫的“新思维”改革与当时高涨的核裁军运动为签署《中导条约》提供了特殊的政治、社会背景。特朗普政府奉行“美国优先”理念,频频废约“退群”,《中导条约》随之沦为牺牲品。在不同历史时期,陆基中导在全球战略稳定中所起的作用不同。在20世纪60年代初,它是美苏中央威慑的支柱。在20世纪70~80年代,它是影响延伸威慑的重要因素。进入21世纪后,它成为俄罗斯对付美国导弹防御的斗争手段。当前,陆基中导在跨域威慑中扮演日益重要的角色。大国中导博弈正卷土重来,但它必将带有与以往不同的诸多新特点。

The INF Treaty,an important arms control treaty reached by the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War,served as one of the major pillars of global strategic stability.In August 2019,the United States and Russia withdrew from the INF Treaty one after another,arousing great concerns from the international community.The misgivings are that their withdrawal from the treaty will affect global strategic stability and security situations in Europe and Asia,trigger a new round of arms race and undermine the international arms control system.China has been taken by the United States as an important excuse for its withdrawal,so the demise of the treaty is bound to exert a profound impact on China’s external security environment.This paper intends to review the creation,development and termination of the INF Treaty,analyze its evolutionary causes on the international,domestic and personal levels and concludes that changes in the international landscape have played a decisive role in making the treaty rise and fall.In the 1980s,changes in the balance of power between the Soviet Union and the United States led to the birth of the INF Treaty.In the 21st centurary,pressures from NATO and the proliferation of missile technology prompted Russia to launch the initiative to globalize the INF Treaty.In recent years,the relative decline of the US hegemonic position has created the environment for the US to opt out of the INF Treaty.At the same time,domestic politics and leadership changes in the United States and Russia have also exerted profound influence on the timing and mode of the“creation,evolution and demise”of the treaty.Mikhail Gorbachev’s“new thinking”reforms and the upsurge in nuclear disarmament movement in the 1980s provided a special political and social context for the birth of the INF Treaty.The“America First”concept pursued by the Donald Trump administration has prompted the United States to withdraw from various international treaties and organizations,making the INF Treaty one of the victims.In different historical periods,the role of the INF varied in maintaining global strategic stability.In the early 1960s,it was the backbone of the central deterrence of the United States and the Soviet Union.In the 1970s and 1980s,INF became an important factor affecting extended deterrence.In the 21st century,it has become a tool for Russia to fight against the US missile defense system.At present,INF plays an increasingly important role in cross-domain deterrence.The world is now witnessing a recurrence of the INF competition among big powers,but the new round of competition will surely demonstrate many new characteristics different from those of the past.