宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎患者回顾性研究与防控策略思考

Retrospective study and thinking on prevention and control strategy base on COVID-19 cases in Ningbo city

目的分析宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)患者的流行病学特征,为疫情防控提供科学依据。方法收集并回顾性分析中国科学院大学宁波华美医院(宁波市第二医院)2020年1月15日至2月5日收治的77例COVID-19患者的流行病学资料,分析患者人口学特征及接触-发病、发病-初诊、初诊-疑似、疑似-确诊所需时间分布情况;比较三级与非三级医院收治患者在发病-初诊、初诊-疑似所需时间分布上的差异。结果最终共计71例患者纳入分析,男22例,女49例;发病年龄(50.3±14.6)岁;高中及以下学历45例(63.38%)。患者接触-发病(统计43例)0~14 d,中位时间7 d。发病-初诊(统计71例)、初诊-疑似(统计70例)及疑似-确诊(统计70例)所需时间中位数分别为5、3及0 d,均随时间推移稳步下降。2020年1月30日至2月3日期间,发病患者以上3个过程均可在1 d内完成(发病-初诊0.7 d、初诊-疑似0.2 d、疑似-确诊0.6 d)。与三级医院相比,非三级医院COVID-19患者初诊-疑似所需时间较长(<0.05)。结论宁波市COVID-19疫情防控初见成效,将防控工作重心前移到发现并控制潜伏期患者和无症状患者,并发挥三级医院的领头作用或是进一步控制疫情的切入点。

Objective To analyze epidemiologic characteristics of 77 hospitalized patients withCOVID-19 in Ningbo,and pro-vide evidence for COVID-19 prevention and control.Method Epidemiological data of 77 hospitalized patients was collected and analyzed.Demographic characteristics of patients were analyzed,and the distribution of time for infection to first symptom,first symptom to diagnosis,diagnosis to suspected,suspected to comfirm was described.Furthermore,different of average time for infection to firstsymptom,firstsymptom to diagnosis,diagnosisto suspected between third-class hospital and non-third-class hospital was compared.Results A total of 71 patients were included in the analysis,including 22 males and 49 females.Average age of participantsin thisstudy was 50.3±14.6,average time for infection to firstsymptom,firstsymptom to diagnosis,diagnosis to suspected,suspected to comfirm was 6 d,2.1 d,2.1d,1.3 d.Time for first symptom to diagnosis,diagnosis to suspected,sus-pected to comfirmwas declined to 0.7 d,0.2 d,0.6 d fromJanuary 30 toFebruary 3,respectively.Compared to third-class hospital,average time for first symptom to diagnosis was shorter and average time for diagnosis to suspected was longer.Conclusions The prevention and control of COVID-19 in Ningbo area has achieved initial success.The strategy for prevention and control should shift focus on controlling patients in incubation period and asymptomatic patientsand third-class hospital should play a leading role,which may be an entry point for further control of the epidemic.