基于灰色理论模型预测上海市质量竞争力指数

Prediction of Shanghai Quality Competitiveness Index Based on Grey System Theory

质量竞争力指数是指质量因素在塑造核心竞争力过程中发挥的程度,它通过分析与质量密切相关的因素以建立评价指标体系,并运用适宜的指数化评价方法进行量化测评而得来.利用灰色系统理论对于“少数据”、“贫信息”不确定性系统的研究优势,采用G(1,1)模型,根据上海市2008-2017年制造业质量竞争力指数,对上海市2018年制造业质量竞争能力进行建模和预测,并且通过残差检验,后验差检验和关联检验,说明所建模型在预测上海制造业质量竞争力指数的可行性.

Quality competitiveness index refers to the degree to which quality factors exert themselves in the process of shaping core competitiveness.It is obtained by analyzing the factors closely related to quality to establish the evaluation index system and using the appropriate index evaluation method for quantitative evaluation.Based on the advantages of grey system theory on studying the uncertain system of‘few data’and‘poor information’,the model G(1,1)is adopted to model and predict the manufacturing quality competitiveness of Shanghai in 2018 according to the manufacturing quality competitiveness index of Shanghai from 2008 to 2017.The feasibility of the model in predicting the manufacturing quality competitiveness index of Shanghai is illustrated by residual test,posterior variance test and correlation test.