基于VAR模型的湖南省经济发展、产业结构和宏观税负关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Industry Structure,Economic Production Value and Macro Taxation in Hunan Province with a VAR Model

本文研究在湖南省经济发展过程中产业结构、经济生产总值和宏观税负三者之间的关系.利用1952-2017年湖南省宏观统计数据,建立VAR模型,进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解,得到三者之间的动态影响关系.实证分析结果表明,产业结构升级特别是第二产业的增长,在促进经济发展的同时,也推动税收增长,同时也应调整第三产业的相关政策,来维持经济平稳发展,并拉动GDP快速增长.

In this paper we investigate the relationship between the industrial structure,economic production value and macro taxation in the economic developing process in Hunan province.By establishing a VAR model with the statistical data of Hunan province from 1972 to 2017 and performing impulse response analysis and variance decomposition the dynamic impact relationship between those three factors is obtained.The results of empirical analysis show that the upgrade of industrial structure,especially the increase of the secondary industry,promotes not only the economy but also the tax revenue.Based on the conclusion,this paper suggests to speed up the optimization process of the secondary industry to maintain stable economic development,and to adjust relevant policies of the tertiary industry to stimulate area Gross Domestic Product(GDP)growth.