实力展望与备战启示:基于2020年东京奥运周期中日竞技实力分析

Prospect and inspiration to competition preparation:Based on the analysis of the competitive strength of China and Japan in 2020 Tokyo Olympic Cycle

运用文献资料、比较分析、逻辑分析等方法,对2020年东京奥运周期中日两国参加世界大赛奥运项目竞赛成绩进行统计,分析东京奥运周期内两国竞技实力,展望东京奥运会两国金牌数目并提出我国备战启示。结果显示:东京奥运周期内中国和日本金、奖牌数量相比里约奥运会均有所增长,两国竞技实力差距先快速缩小后逐渐扩大;中国金牌、奖牌项目分布面较日本更广,中日两国除了重点夺金、夺牌项目以外,其他项目争夺点都较少且实力不稳定;东京奥运会中国可能获得34±5枚金牌,日本可能获得25±5枚金牌;我国备战东京奥运会要坚持改革创新备战、系统保障备战、科技助力备战、聚焦全球备战,促进备战工作由单一化向多元化发展,由个体服务向综合保障发展,由科技服务向科创动力发展,由国内备战向全球备战发展。

Using the methods of literature,comparative analysis and logic analysis,the authors make statistics on the results of China and Japan in each major world competition of the Olympic events during 2020 Tokyo Olympic Cycle,analyses the competitive strength of China and Japan in 2020 Tokyo Olympic Cycle,and prospect the number of gold medals that China and Japan may win in 2020.The conclusions are that compared with the Rio Olympics,the number of gold medals and medals in China and Japan has increased in the Tokyo Olympic Cycle,and the gap in competitive strength between the two countries first narrowed rapidly and then widened gradually;that the distribution of Chinese gold and medals are more wide than that of Japan;that in addition to the dominant events,China and Japan have few other gold medals events and their strength is unstable;and that China may win 34±5 gold medals and Japan may win 25±5 gold medals in the Tokyo Olympic Games.As for China's competition preparation strategy,the"Reform Innovation","Systematic Support","Scientific and Technological Assistance"and"Global Focus"should be persisted to promote the System of Competition Preparation from singleness to pluralism,from individual service to comprehensive support,from scientific and technological service to scientific and creative power,and from domestic preparatory work to global preparatory work.