基于灰色马尔可夫模型的我国卫生总费用预测及影响因素研究

Research on Forecast of Total Health Expenditure in China and Influencing Factors Based on Gray Markov Model

目的对我国2017—2025年的卫生总费用及筹资结构进行预测,并对卫生总费用的影响因素进行分析,为我国卫生事业的可持续发展提供相关建议。方法建立灰色马尔可夫模型,对我国卫生总费用及筹资结构进行预测,并采用灰色关联分析对卫生费用的影响因素进行分析。结果未来几年我国卫生总费用将会稳步增长,整个筹资结构将呈现以社会卫生支出为主流的局面;人均GDP和全科医生人数与卫生总费用的增长具有较高关联度,分别为0.90和0.77。结论卫生总费用的不合理上涨与筹资结构的构成失调,将对我国卫生事业的协调发展造成负面影响,精确把握卫生总费用的影响因素,对于卫生事业的稳步发展具有重要意义。

Objective To forecast the total health expenditure and financing structure in China from 2017 to 2025 and analyze the influencing factors of total health expenditure.Finally,it provides relevant suggestions for the sustainable development of China's health industry.Methods A grey Markov model was established to predict the total cost of health and financing structure in China,and grey correlation analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of health costs.Results The total health expenditure in China will grow steadily in the next few years.With regard to the funding structure,the entire funding structure will take the mainstream of social health spending.The correlation between the per capita GDP and the growth of the total health expenditure was 0.90;the correlation between the general practitioners and the growth of the total health expenditure was 0.77.Conclusion The unreasonable rise in total health costs and the imbalance in the structure of financing will have a negative impact on the coordinated development of health in China.Accurately grasping the influencing factors of total health expenditure is of great significance for the steady development of health care.