基于模糊网络分析法（F-ANP）的高速铁路运营安全评价

High Speed Railway Operation Safety Evaluation based on F-ANP

高速铁路故障致因复杂,安全评价难以定量化精确描述。为保障高速铁路运营安全,从人员、设备、环境、管理4个方面构建高速铁路运营安全评价指标体系,并分析各安全因素间耦合关系;在评价指标体系基础上,运用网络层次分析法(ANP)和模糊综合评判相结合的模糊网络分析法(F-ANP)建立高速铁路运营安全评价模型。首先通过调研考察和参考相关研究,建立安全评价因素集和评语集;然后运用网络层次分析法确定各安全因素权重,其中工作人员管理制度和列车信号与控制系统对高速铁路运营安全的贡献度最大;最后根据专家问卷调查统计结果建立评价矩阵,并通过模糊变换得出综合评价结果。

Due to the complex failure causes of high speed railway(HSR),it is difficult to quantify and accurately describe the safety evaluation.In order to ensure the HSR operation safety,the evaluation index system of HSR operation safety is built from four aspects of man-machine-environment-management,and the coupling relationship among various safety factors is analyzed.On the basis of the evaluation index system,the evaluation model of HSR operation safety is established by using the fuzzy network analysis method(F-ANP)combined with the network analytic hierarchy process(ANP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.First of all,through investigation and reference to related research,the safety evaluation factor set and comment set are established;then the network analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of each safety factor,in which the staff management system and train signal and control system contribute the most to the HSR operation safety;finally,the evaluation matrix is established according to the statistical results of expert questionnaire survey,and obtained through fuzzy transformation comprehensive evaluation results.