全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下北京市暴雨洪涝淹没风险研究

The rainstorm and flooding disaster risk in Beijing under the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃

基于第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的5个气候模式模拟结果,结合FloodArea模型,对RCP8.5情景下全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃时,北京市极端降水和淹没风险进行分析。结果表明:北京市极端降水量呈从西南向东北逐渐减少的分布趋势。在升温2.0℃时,极端降水和淹没风险增加较升温1.5℃时明显,郊区极端降水增加最明显的地区是房山和门头沟,城区极端降水量增加最明显的地区是海淀、石景山和丰台区。海淀区出现一级和二级淹没风险的面积最大,其次是丰台和石景山区。郊区的延庆和怀柔是发生一级淹没风险面积最大的地区。

Based on five climate model simulation results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) and the FloodArea model, this paper analyzes the extreme precipitation and inundation risks of Beijing with global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ under the scenario of RCP8.5. The extreme precipitation in Beijing shows a decreasing distribution trend from southwest to northeast. When the temperature rises to 2.0℃, the risk of extreme precipitation and inundation increases more obviously than when the temperature rises to 1.5℃. The districts with the most obvious increase in extreme precipitation in suburbs are Fangshan and Mentougou, and Haidian, Shijingshan and Fengtai are the districts with the most obvious increase in extreme precipitation in urban areas. Haidian district has the largest area of flood risk, followed by Fengtai and Shijingshan district. The suburbs of Yanqing and Huairou are the areas with the largest flood area.