新兴养老科技产业及区域发展评价研究

A research on the evaluation of emerging gerontechnology industry and its regional development

随着人口老龄化深度发展和新兴技术的广泛应用,科技创新视角下的老龄产业发展开始走向实践,但相关理论研究及对实践活动的深入分析十分少见。鉴于此,本文首先从内涵和外延上界定了新兴养老科技产业概念,论证了其构成细分和主要特征;然后提出了新兴养老科技产业发展指数和养老共享价值概念及计算方法,并对65岁及以上老年人口比例大于等于11%的省级行政区域进行了新兴养老科技产业发展评价研究,进而阐述了我国新兴养老科技产业存在的主要问题并提出应对建议。

The population is aging increasingly rapidly along with the advancement of emerging technology applications.Encouraging innovation in science and technology may lead to the aging industry being poised to be practical.Although the term gerontechnology industry is used universally,there is no definition of its concept,characteristics,nor categorization at the industry level.Although domestic research in theory and industry has cubes on the aging or pension industry,the research topics and research methods rarely involve science and technology or technological innovation,and there is no related research on the emerging gerontechnology industry.Given this,this paper firstly defines the concept of the emerging gerontechnology industry and distinguishes it from aging-related concepts.Then it demonstrates five inner-structures and five main characteristics of the emerging gerontechnology industry.The five characteristics are science and technology-intensive,industrial convergence,growth and emerging,supply and benefit for people,economic potential.Secondly,it analyses the influential factors of the emerging gerontechnology industry development and proposes an evaluation index system,in which the weight is based on the Maximizing deviation method.The TOPSIS method is used to evaluate the development of the emerging gerontechnology industry in China′s province-level administrative regions.It shows that the development of the emerging gerontechnology industry differs:Most of the regions have not reached the average of the development index of the emerging gerontechnology industry,nor the average of secondary indicators;the innovation ability of the emerging gerontechnology industry is weak,which industrial R&D investment accounts for less than 1%of the sales revenue,and the number of effective invention patents granted by enterprises is less than one.Thirdly,the paper proposes the concept and calculation method of pension sharing value.The pension sharing value refers to the benefits the elderly received from the development of the emerging gerontechnology industry.The growth rate of the development index of the emerging gerontechnology industry is higher than the growth rate of the population aging index.It reveals the compatible development of both and the guarantee of pension sharing value,yet the pension sharing value of most province-level administrative regions has not reached an average of 14 province-level administrative regions.Finally,to solve the problems in the development of China′s emerging gerontechnology industry,three suggestions are put forward:to develop a plan of the emerging gerontechnology industry for improving the policy and strengthening the foundation of industrial development;to nurture the actors of industrial innovation and enhance industrial supply capacity;to enhance the innovation capacity of the emerging gerontechnology industry.