基于AHP和模糊综合评价的兰州市休闲农业发展评价与分析

Evaluation and analysis of Lanzhou leisure agriculture development based on AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

通过实地调研和组织专家交流、访谈会议等方式,在专家的反馈意见和调研数据分析的基础上,采用层次分析法(AHP)构建了由4个准则层和22个评价因素层构成的兰州市休闲农业发展评价指标体系。通过标度(1~9)将所有指标进行两两相比,按重要程度建立判别矩阵,通过求解矩阵最大特征根(λmax)及对应的特征向量(ω)计算权重。经一致性检验,满足一致性要求,得到逐层总排序权重。鉴于休闲农业的可持续发展受诸多因素影响,且部分指标存在一定的模糊性,采用模糊评价方法将调研评价指标的得分与权重综合评价的结果相结合,对其进行定量研究分析和综合评价。评价结果表明:兰州市休闲农业现状发展评价体系得分为72.98,处于中等发展水平并呈现增长趋势和发展上升潜力,评价结果较为全面、客观,并在一定程度上能代表兰州市休闲农业阶段性发展水平。

Through field research and organizing expert exchange and interview meetings,on the basis of experts′feedback and survey data analysis,the evaluation index system of Lanzhou leisure agriculture development was constructed by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP),which consisted of four criteria levels and 22 indicators levels.All indicators were compared by scale(one to nine).The discriminant matrix was established according to the importance degree,and the weight results were calculated by solving the maximum eigenvalue(λmax)of the matrix and the corresponding eigenvector(ω).By consistency test,the consistency requirements were satisfied and the total ranking weight results were obtained.In view of the fact that the sustainable development of leisure agriculture was affected by many factors,and some of the indicators had certain fuzziness,a fuzzy evaluation method was used to combine the score of the research evaluation indicators with the result of the weight comprehensive evaluation,and carry out quantitative analysis and comprehensive evaluation.The evaluation results showed that the evaluation system of leisure agriculture development in Lanzhou had a score of 72.98.The development of leisure agriculture in Lanzhou was in the middle level and showed a growing trend and potential.The evaluation results are comprehensive and objective,and can represent the stage development level of leisure agriculture in Lanzhou to a certain extent.