中国产业政策如何应对第四次工业革命?

How Does China’s Industrial Policy Respond to the Fourth Industrial Revolution?

以人工智能为通用技术的第四次工业革命与以往历次工业革命有所不同,前三次工业革命的通用技术只涉及单一关键投入,而人工智能作为一种复合型关键投入,其技术进步依赖于算法、芯片和数据的协同进步。人工智能技术的扩散速度不仅受本部门技术创新的影响,也需要上下游关联产业互补式创新的支持。再加上数字化技术在经济中的影响日益扩大,重组式创新也变得日益重要,传统产业政策已无法应对全产业链和跨部门的协同创新和组合爆炸的挑战,政策范式转型已刻不容缓。根据演化经济学的技术-经济范式理论判断,第四次工业革命尚处于导入期的构造范式阶段,这一阶段将会出现"创新蜂聚"和科技投资热潮。中国巨大的市场规模和海量的数据成为发展人工智能的先天优势,但也存在诸如基础科研投入不足,高端芯片领域缺乏核心技术等短板,以及促进创新和隐私保护的两难权衡。中国必须同时采用旨在促进人工智能领域"创新基因池"多样化和互补式创新的"水平式"产业政策,以及旨在突破关键核心技术和共性技术的"垂直式"产业政策,唯有二者并重,中国才有可能在第四次工业革命中取得领先地位。

The fourth industrial revolution with artificial intelligence as its General purpose technology is different from other industrial revolutions before,technical progress of AI depends on collaborative innovation of Algorithms chips and data,The speed of technology diffusion is not only influenced by the technological innovation of the original department,It also needs the support of complementary innovation in upstream and downstream related industries.Coupled with the growing influence of digital technology in the economy,Recombination innovation is also becoming increasingly important,Traditional industrial policy has been challenged,A shift in policy paradigm is necessary.On the basis of elucidating the characteristics of the technology-economic paradigm of the fourth industrial revolution and the judgment of its stage,then we pointed out that traditional industrial policies cannot deal with the technological innovation of artificial intelligence and the revolution of digital business model.In the end,Combining the characteristics of the technology-economy paradigm of the fourth industrial revolution and China’s special national conditions,We points out the principles of China’s industrial policy making and the direction of policy adjustment.