去工业化、技术差距与产业转移的技术溢出效应

Deindustrialization,Technology Gap and Technology Spillover Effect of Industrial Relocation

中西部承接产业转移缺乏显著的正向技术溢出效应,成为2000年后区际技术差距持续扩大以及近年部分地区过早去工业化的关键影响因素之一。利用2001~2017年全国30个省(市)面板数据研究证实,各地区技术水平与工业增加值在地区生产总值中的份额之间存在显著正相关性;中西部在2005~2014年承接了较大规模产业转移,而区际技术差距却持续扩大,技术溢出效应显著为负。在相对偏低的技术水平条件下,中西部地区在十余年的产业承接中主要依赖于廉价的要素成本优势,其自主创新能力、创新资源积累已不足以抵御本地消费升级、要素成本上升与国际需求疲软等负面因素的叠加影响。最终,技术差距、商品及服务净输出赤字的扩大至少加快了部分欠发达地区的去工业化。

The lack of significant positive technology spillover effect of undertaking industrial transfer in the central and western regions of China is one of the core factors widening inter-regional technology gap after 2000 and inducing the premature de-industrialization in recent years. Though calculating the panel data of 30 provinces in 2001-2017,there is a significant positive correlation between the technological level and their own share of industry value add in local GDP,and the industrial transfer toward to the central and western regions in 2005-2014 has contribute to the technology gap widening among regions for significantly negative spillover effects. Due to the relatively low technical level,the central and western regions have attracted industrial transfer mainly rely on cheap factor costs for more than a few decades,their independent innovation capability and resources is hardly to resist the combine effects of local consumption upgrading,rising factor costs and weak international demand. Finally,the widening of technology gap and net export deficit for goods and services at least has accelerated the de-industrialization of some less developed regions.