“一带一路”沿线国家收入不平等与恐怖风险

Income Inequality and Terrorism Risk in "the Belt and Road" Countries

[目的/意义]恐怖活动对"一带一路"沿线国家的安全和发展造成巨大挑战和威胁。防范政治风险、治安风险的根本在于防范经济风险和社会风险。为促使"一带一路"政策持续有效执行,减少恐怖风险及其社会经济影响和政治成本,有必要了解恐怖风险的社会根源。[方法/过程]该文以GTD和WDI等数据为基础,以民主、内战、人口规模、经济发展、政府消费、排除人口等因素为控制变量,应用负二项回归方法分析了1984-2014年"一带一路"沿线41个国家收入不平等和恐怖风险的关系。以收入不平等10年滞后、相对成熟年龄组、农业附加值三个工具变量验证模型内生性。[结果/结论]收入不平等程度越高,国内恐怖风险就越高。收入不平等间接通过侵蚀腐败、法治、人权等制度质量导致恐怖风险发生,但收入不平等间接通过恶化社会经济条件影响恐怖风险的假设不成立。

[Purpose/Significance]Terrorism poses great challenges and threats to the security and development of the Belt and Road countries.The fundamental of preventing political risk and public security risk is to prevent economic risk and social risk.In order to promote the continuous and effective implementation of "the Belt and Road" policy as well as reduce terrorism risk and its socio-economic impact and political cost,it is necessary to understand the social origin of terrorism risk.[Method/Process]Based on GTD and WDI data,and taking democracy,civil war,population size,economic development,government consumption,excluding population and other factors as control variables,we analyze the relationship between income inequality and terrorism risk in 41 Belt and Road countries from 1984 to 2014 by using the negative binomial regression method.Endogeneity was verified by three instrumental variables: ten-year-lag of income inequality,relative size of mature-aged cohorts,and agricultural added value.[Result/Conclusion]Income inequality is positively correlated with domestic terrorism risk.Income inequality indirectly causes terrorism risk by eroding the quality of institutions such as corruption,the rule of law and human rights.But the assumption that income inequality indirectly affects terrorism risk by worsening social and economic conditions is invalid.