中国视角：朝核问题现状及解决途径

China’s Perspective:The Status Quo of the North Korean Nuclear Issue and the Approach for its Solution

本文通过对朝鲜拥核的内外部因素分析,重新评估了朝鲜的核政策,反驳了目前西方学者在朝核问题上的6种观点,对朝鲜拥核的动机、强制弃核的效果、朝核问题解决的程序悖论、中国在朝核问题上的作用、朝鲜经济变革的可能性以及六方会谈的未来等进行了论证。本文认为朝鲜弃核进程必须与安全关切紧密联在一起,弃核的实现又与朝鲜的经济改革存在相关性。必须强化六方会谈其他五方与朝鲜的立场和政策更为有效的协调,以多边模式整合碎片化的地区安全局面。

This paper has analyzed the internal and external factors that prompted North Korea to strive for nuclear capacity,and reappraised its nuclear policies,while contradicting 6 view points of western scholars on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue through demonstrating North Korea's motivation to acquire nuclear capacity,the effects of a forced denuclearization,procedure paradox for resolving the Korean nuclear issue,China's role in resolving the Korean nuclear issue,the possibility of North Korea's economic reform,and the future of the Six-Party Talk.This article believes that the denuclearization process of North Korea must be closely linked with its security,while the reality of denuclearization is associated with its economic reform.Therefore,efforts must be made to effectively strengthen position and policy coordination of the five parties with North Korea within the Six-Party Talk,and to integrate the fragmented regional security situation through a multilateral mechanism.