2019年朝鲜半岛形势回顾

A Retrospect of the Korean Peninsula Situation in 2019

2019年,朝鲜半岛处于美朝无核化博弈和东北亚地区大国战略博弈之中。美国主动出击,在朝鲜半岛地区推行其"印太战略",中国和俄罗斯正面迎击,韩国谋求与美国"印太战略"对接,朝鲜半岛的战略博弈呈现新态势,缓和下的博弈成为一种新常态。朝鲜半岛紧张局势缓解,军事对抗强度降低,安全形势无巨变亦无升温。美国的对朝制裁施压、对韩约束限制政策为韩朝关系投下了阴影。韩朝关系有缓和,但也有波折:军事和解取得进展,但军事合作协议尚未完全履行;保持了对话合作的渠道,但合作交流止步不前。有关国家为促进朝鲜半岛无核化和建立朝鲜半岛永久和平机制付出了努力,无核化进程仍然处于"双暂停"阶段。半岛问题出现钝化迹象。

As a result,a new situation emerged in the strategic game over the Korean Peninsula,with game amid relaxation becoming a new normal.The tense situation in the Korean Peninsula was relaxed;the intensity of military confrontation was reduced;and the security situation was evolving without drastic changes or wanning up.The sanctions and restriction the US placed on North and South Koreas respectively cast a shadow on the relations between the DPRK and the ROK.Although relationship between the DPRK and the ROK was somewhat relaxed,there were also setbacks:military settlement was making headway,while military cooperation agreement was left unfulfilled;and the channel for cooperation dialog remained open,while cooperation and exchanges stalled.Despite the efforts made by relevant countries to promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of a permanent peace mechanism in the peninsula,the denuclearization process stopped at the“dual suspension”phase with signs of passivation emerging on the Korean Peninsula issue.