中东2019：内外危机加剧与地区格局失衡

The Middle East Situation in 2019: Intensifying Crises Internally and Externally, and the Imbalance of the Regional Pattern

2019年中东局势呈现内外危机加剧、地区格局失衡两大特征。从大国看,美国针对伊朗的"极限施压"空前严厉,伊朗设法反制,双方游走冲突边缘。美伊对峙的松与紧影响着波斯湾与西亚的安与危。从地区看,苏丹、阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、黎巴嫩四个阿拉伯国家爆发持续性民众抗议,冲击旧政治体制,上演新版"阿拉伯之春"。四国动荡加剧阿拉伯阵营弱化,引发土耳其、以色列、伊朗三强竞夺,地区格局进一步失衡。美伊关系紧张、阿拉伯世界弱化、地区格局失衡既是老问题,又有新表现,持续搅乱中东局势。

The Middle East situation in 2019 is characterized by intensifying crises both internally and externally,and the imbalance of the regional pattern.From a major-country perspective,the extreme pressures put by the US on Iran are unprecedentedly severe,while Iran is trying to fight back,with them wandering on the brink of conflict.As a result,the security of the Persian Gulf and West Asia is hanging on the stalemate between the US and Iran.From a regional point of view,persisting popular protests have occurred in Sudan,Algeria,Iraq and Lebanon,not only challenging the old political system,but also likely to unfold a new version of"Arab Spring".The unrest roaring on in these four countries has much weakened the solidarity of the Arab camp,hence providing opportunities for Turkey,Israel and Iran to contend for regional power,which has further tilted the balance of power in the region.The tense relations between the US and Iran,the weakening of the Arab world,and the imbalance of regional pattern are old problems with new features,which is continuing to roil the Middle East situation.