闽广两省旅游经济效应对比研究

A Comparative Study on the Economic Effects of Tourism in Fujian and Guangdong Provinces

闽广两省在资源禀赋、区位特点等方面有很多相似点,但旅游效应发挥却大不相同,因此对两省2009-2018年的旅游数据进行对比分析,利用VAR模型对比收入效应,发现福建省优于广东省且更加平稳;构建一元线性回归模型对比创汇效应,发现广东省优于福建省;计算灰色关联度对比产业关联效应,发现福建省旅游业对三产的依赖度远超广东省。因此,福建省在未来旅游业的发展上,应增强交通通达度,加大国际宣传力度,增加入境游人数;广东省应加强旅游业同其他产业的融合,获得新一轮的产值突破。

Since its emergence the tourism has played an important role in the economy of tourist destinations.There are many similarities between Fujian Province and Guangdong Province in terms of the resource endowment,location characteristics,etc.However the tourism effect is quite different.Therefore,the tourism data of the two provinces in 2009-2018 are analyzed comparatively.Using VAR model to compare the income effect,we find that Fujian Province is better than Guangdong Province and more stable;building a linear regression model to compare the foreign exchange earning effect,we find that Guangdong Province is better than Fujian Province;calculating the gray correlation degree to compare the industrial correlation effect,we find that the tourism dependence of Fujian Province on the tertiary industry is far higher than Guangdong Province.Therefore,in the future development of tourism in Fujian Province,we should enhance the traffic accessibility,to increase the international publicity,and to increase the number of inbound tourists;Guangdong Province should strengthen the integration of tourism and other industries to achieve a new round of the output value breakthrough.