人口政策对老龄化的影响预测--基于出生侧和死亡侧模型分析

Prediction of the impact of population policies on aging problem:An analytical model based on birth and death side

人口老龄化是当前我国面临的关键性问题之一,本文在增长理论的框架下研究了人口老龄化对经济增长以及人力资本积累的影响.通过引入人力资本,本文建立老龄经济模型并分别从"出生侧"和"死亡侧"的角度对人口规模和人口结构变化的内在机制进行研究,并对老龄化以及三种政策的影响进行了数值模拟预测.理论分析和数值模拟预测的结果显示:新生人口增长率的下降以及代表性个体的预期寿命延长都将导致或加深人口老龄化问题;开放二胎等鼓励生育政策虽在短期内能够缓解人口老龄化问题,但对人均产出可能存在负面影响,从长期来说将不利于人力资本的积累;延迟退休政策在长期内将增加经济体的人力资本积累、人均产出及人均消费,提高教育质量亦存在积极的长期效应.

Aging population has become one of the critical issues in China.This paper mainly studies the impact of population aging on economic growth and human capital accumulation under the framework of growth model.By introducing human capital factors,this paper establishes a population model,and the intrinsic mechanism of population size and demographic changes is analyzed in detail from the perspective of "born side" and "death side".Then we use numerical simulation to visualize the impact of population aging and different policies.The results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the decline of the growth rate of the new population and the prolongation of the life expectancy of the representative individuals will lead to or deepen the problem of population aging,while the policy of encouraging reproduction such as opening up the second child can alleviate the problem of population aging in the short term,but it may have negative effects on per capita output and do harm to the accumulation of human capital in the long term.The policy of postponing retirement will increase the accumulation of human capital,per capita output and per capita consumption in the long run.And improving the quality of education also bring positive long-term effects.