习惯形成与中国农民消费行为变迁：改革开放以来的经验验证

The Evolvement of Habit Formation and Farmers’ Consumption Behavior:An Empirical Verification Since China’s Reform and Opening-up

利用1978~2017年中国31个省(市、区)的农村居民住户调查数据,在构建了具有内部习惯形成和收入不确定性的农民消费行为计量模型基础上,本文运用SYS-GMM估计方法对农民消费行为的时期演化轨迹进行了实证分析。结果表明:改革开放以来,中国农民消费行为变动不仅在整体上呈现出对收入变动的过度敏感性,而且还表现出了显著的习惯形成效应;过度敏感性和习惯形成效应都因农民收入增长速度的阶段性不同而存在极大差异,特别是在2004年前后表现出了明显的"消费压抑"和"消费释放"这一两极分化现象,而习惯形成效应表现出了明显的先缓慢降低之后又快速扩大的趋势;同一类消费在不同阶段的习惯形成效应和不同类消费在同一阶段的习惯形成效应都存在显著差异,各项消费同样存在从"压抑"向"释放"的转变趋势。本文研究的启示在于:提高农民消费水平,扩大内需已经到了最佳时期。必须增强支农政策的稳定性、延续性和准确性,构建促进农民持续较快增收的长效政策机制,进一步转变农民消费观念,改善农村消费环境,顺应消费升级趋势,才能真正实现人民生活高质量发展和居民福利水平全面改善。

Based on the survey data of rural residents in 31 provinces from 1978 to 2017,this article establishes an econometric model of farmers'consumption behavior with internal habit formation and income uncertainty,and uses the SYS-GMM estimation method to measure the changes of farmers'consumption behavior.The study finds that the changes in Chinese farmers'consumption behavior since the reform and opening-up not only show excessive sensitivity to income changes,but also show significant habit formation effects;excessive sensitivity and habit formation effects are greatly different due to the different stages of farmers'income growth.There are great differences in stages,especially in the years before and after 2004,showing obvious polarization of“consumption depression”and“consumption release”,while the habit formation effect shows the obvious trend of slow decrease first and then rapid expansion;Both the habit formation effect of the same kind of consumption at differentstages and the habit formation effect of different types of consumption at the same stage are significantly different.All kinds of consumption also have a transition trend from“depression”to“release”.The enlightenment of the study is that it has reached the best time to raise farmers'consumption level and expand domestic demand.It is necessary to enhance the stability,continuity and accuracy of the agricultural support policy,establish a long-term mechanism to promote sustained and rapid increase of farmers'income,further change farmers'outlook on consumption,improve rural consumption environment,and conform to the trend of consumption upgrading.Only by doing so can we truly achieve the high-quality development of people's life and the overall improvement of residents’welfare level.