如何开启第二次人口红利？

The Second Demographic Dividend as Driver of China’s Growth

随着中国人口转变过程进入新阶段,第一次人口红利终将消失并且不可能再现,未来的经济发展必然与人口老龄化相伴而行。因此,从老龄化本身寻求崭新的经济增长源泉,才是开启第二次人口红利的题中应有之义。从保持经济增长可持续的需要,本文揭示中国特殊老龄化社会的现实制约,即伴随人口老龄化显现出人力资本递减、劳动参与率递减和消费力递减等现象。本文提出若干政策建议,旨在借助人口的回声效应,从人口各个年龄段入手改善人力资本,提高劳动者的就业能力和老年人的劳动参与率,进而增加老年群体的收入和社会保障水平。这些举措预期分别从供给侧和需求侧对经济增长产生促进效果,从而开启第二次人口红利。

As China’s demographic transition has entered a new phase,the first demographic dividend is bound to disappear,and it will never be reproduced again.Therefore,China’s future development will have to go along with population aging.Tapping new sources of economic growth from such an aging population,therefore,becomes the intrinsic connotation of the second demographic dividend.Concerning sustaining economic growth in an aging society,this article reveals major constraints resulting from an aging population that has distinct Chinese characteristic–growing old before getting rich.That is,as the population ages,human capital improvement slows down,labor force participation declines,and consumption power weakens.The article suggests making use of the echo effect of population to improve human capital of all ages,enhance laborers’employment ability and elderly labor force participation,and increase income and social security of the aged people.All those efforts are conducive to future economic growth and help bring about the second demographic dividend.